Bad News for the Missouri Valley?
Most of the national media loves to talk about the Missouri Valley Conference and how they are no longer a mid-major and deserve to have at least 5 teams in the NCAA Tournament this year. I agree that the MVC is probably the best "non-BCS" league, but I disagree on just how good they really are. Last year the conference had pretty good success in the tournament, so most writers think it's a given that they deserve 4 to 5 teams in the tournament again this year. But, I don't think these people are looking at what is actually going on in conference play.
Here are the standings through Thursday:
Creighton 12-6, 6-2
Northern Iowa 14-4, 5-2
Southern Illinois 14-5, 5-3
Missouri St. 14-5, 5-3
Indiana St. 11-6, 4-3
Bradley 13-7, 4-4
Wichita St. 12-7, 3-5
Evansville 10-9, 3-5
Drake 11-8, 2-6
Illinois St. 10-9, 2-6
First off, Wichita St. is not going to make the tournament unless they are able to put together a very impressive 8 or 9 game win streak. They have to win 6 of 10 just to finish at .500 in the conference. That kind of record in a conference like this shouldn't get you in.
Indiana St. is doing pretty well in the conference, but losses to Middle Tenn., Ball St., and Drake hurt them pretty badly. However, they have beaten Butler, Purdue, and Creighton, so a good finish in the conference could get them in.
Bradley is a team that gets hardly any mention, but they have the 3rd best rpi in the conference. They still have a tough conference schedule ahead of them, and I don't see them finishing above .500 in the conference either. Plus they'll more than likely have at least 10 losses which is too many in this league.
So the 4 main contenders are Creighton, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, and Missouri St.
Creighton's 6-4 non-conference record hurts them, and so does their early conference loss to Indiana St. They still have 2 games vs SIU, @ Missouri St, @ Bradley, and vs. N. Iowa, and Wichita St. So, they also have a good chance of having at least 10 losses.
Northern Iowa is in pretty good shape right now after their win @ Missouri St. on Thursday. They only have 4 losses, but their rpi is 7th in the league. But if they finish above teams with higher rpi's they should be ok to get in.
Southern Illinois has an rpi of 15 and a win over Virginia Tech that is looking pretty good now. They also have 6 of their last 10 at home.
Missouri St. has an rpi of 14 and a very good win over Wisconsin, who has a good chance at a number 1 seed. If they finish in the top 4 in the conference it would be hard to keep them out of the tournament, but they need haven't been able to beat any of the teams ahead of them so far.
So after looking at all of this, I think the most the conference can get in is 4, but I think that is unlikely. There may be only 2 teams with under 10 losses after the regular season and conference tournament is over. Another thing that might hurt this conference is that none of the teams get a shot to take down a really big name like the teams from the power conferences do. The Bracket Buster challenge could help a few of these teams, but a loss would really hurt the conference's credibility.
Here are the standings through Thursday:
Creighton 12-6, 6-2
Northern Iowa 14-4, 5-2
Southern Illinois 14-5, 5-3
Missouri St. 14-5, 5-3
Indiana St. 11-6, 4-3
Bradley 13-7, 4-4
Wichita St. 12-7, 3-5
Evansville 10-9, 3-5
Drake 11-8, 2-6
Illinois St. 10-9, 2-6
First off, Wichita St. is not going to make the tournament unless they are able to put together a very impressive 8 or 9 game win streak. They have to win 6 of 10 just to finish at .500 in the conference. That kind of record in a conference like this shouldn't get you in.
Indiana St. is doing pretty well in the conference, but losses to Middle Tenn., Ball St., and Drake hurt them pretty badly. However, they have beaten Butler, Purdue, and Creighton, so a good finish in the conference could get them in.
Bradley is a team that gets hardly any mention, but they have the 3rd best rpi in the conference. They still have a tough conference schedule ahead of them, and I don't see them finishing above .500 in the conference either. Plus they'll more than likely have at least 10 losses which is too many in this league.
So the 4 main contenders are Creighton, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, and Missouri St.
Creighton's 6-4 non-conference record hurts them, and so does their early conference loss to Indiana St. They still have 2 games vs SIU, @ Missouri St, @ Bradley, and vs. N. Iowa, and Wichita St. So, they also have a good chance of having at least 10 losses.
Northern Iowa is in pretty good shape right now after their win @ Missouri St. on Thursday. They only have 4 losses, but their rpi is 7th in the league. But if they finish above teams with higher rpi's they should be ok to get in.
Southern Illinois has an rpi of 15 and a win over Virginia Tech that is looking pretty good now. They also have 6 of their last 10 at home.
Missouri St. has an rpi of 14 and a very good win over Wisconsin, who has a good chance at a number 1 seed. If they finish in the top 4 in the conference it would be hard to keep them out of the tournament, but they need haven't been able to beat any of the teams ahead of them so far.
So after looking at all of this, I think the most the conference can get in is 4, but I think that is unlikely. There may be only 2 teams with under 10 losses after the regular season and conference tournament is over. Another thing that might hurt this conference is that none of the teams get a shot to take down a really big name like the teams from the power conferences do. The Bracket Buster challenge could help a few of these teams, but a loss would really hurt the conference's credibility.
posted by Josh at 10:25 PM
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